Lesson 10

Technology Assessment and Forecasting; Developing a Framework for Understanding What Comes Next

This is the final week 11 and witness how time flies. The final chapter of our lesson ends with the combination of the entire chapters we have learned so far. How to be a change leader? What kinds of changes a new technology innovation might bring in terms of economic, social, legal, environmental and others?

In labs around the world, researchers are busy creating technologies that will change the way we conduct business and live our lives. Some are completely new technologies that could soon transform computing, medicine, manufacturing, transportation, and our energy infrastructure ..... Advances that could shape the future and betterment of human mankind. Sometimes it gets hard to believe in advances that are poised to change the world by forecasting our future. 

One of the important quotes is emphasized in class “We should work back from the future rather then from present to future”. This back from future concept works when one takes current obstacles and turns them into stepping stone as a jumping board to constantly working at their goals in the future. In essence, it makes us think of the future but with realistic limitations and obstacles so as to envision the possible change ahead.


Overall, the journey of this course has explored the various ways on how we can tap on opportunities to change the world and at the same time uncover the current technologies that have brought about sustainable solutions for the betterment of human and the world. I believe that we can make a difference in this fast changing game environment.

Rate: 8.5/10

"Be ready for tomorrow's challenges" 

- Xiaowei -

Lesson 9

Emerging and Future Technology

Thoughts and Summary: New technologies are changing the old ways on how human behave and do things in the past. As far as I have conserved, computers have become more powerful, media is becoming more digitalised and computing, business firms are moving towards adopting “green” approach to save their operating costs, growing use of nanotechnologies and many more to benefit the mankind.

In fact, emerging technologies can be seen as a contemporary advance and innovation that human seek to serve towards their goals of creating progressive developments, competitive advantage and other more purposes. This lesson is definitely an eye-opening observation as I get to be exposed to many new technologies that are being discussed in class, like the plastics electronics, augmented reality, perfect lady robot, spider pill, driverless car and more.

One of the interesting discussions on the driverless car can be discussed further. From the response of the class, some are sceptical on this idea of driving without a driver while some are very supportive and prof is one of them. Personally, I always feel that this driverless car technology is just around the corner and we are getting ready to step into a driverless utopia (I get this image when I was 16 years old). Machines/ technologies are getting into our daily life so much so that we are dependent on them and without them it seems like the world is going to come to an end. At that age, I was hoping to have such an implementation of driverless car technology so that my parent will not feel so exhausted after his long day at work and with the aid of this technology he is able to sleep in his vehicle soundly without the risk of falling asleep while driving. We would be able to see less car accidents on the roads as driver error would not be a factor in this case, decreased traffic and pollutions. Furthermore, drivers are able to hop in their car and enjoy the “automated” ride. For those who are not convinced because they feel that we must completely entrust their lives in the hands of this driverless car technology which in the end would not be possible as there could be also errors when the car malfunctions or passengers have no control over the car. There are always extreme views on this issue but whatever the reasons I am supportive of this driverless car.

Another interesting presentation is on the spider pill. Listening to the name of it just scares me off. Spider is an eight-legged creative, so does the pill? The concept of swallowing such a big pill in your mouth and making its way to the digestive tract seems rather uncomfortable. However, when you compare another option of using endoscopes, it might seem that the spider pill is better in a way. Prof has mentioned that the patient would not feel a thing when the pill inside the patient’s body which I did not the truth until now. It just gives me the idea that whatever going down to your intestine traits will leave you pain moreover it’s in the control of doctor’s hands to examine until they find the reasons why. But I still believe many would slowly accept the use of spider pill in time to come.

Readings:

I went over to the readings and browse through reading 3, Futre technologies to watch, beacuse I am curious on what I can expect for the new technologies. It is about the PC Mag.com delivering the latest technology news to the world and create a lab-based reviews for readers to help them find the best products at the lowest price. I looked through the Project Natal (a small box device that have a wide varity of inputs - gestures, facial recognition and voice command), Nvidia GeForce 3D Vision (retail price at $200 on the stereoscopic glasses to get a 60Hz worth of images to get you fully immersed into a game) and Touch Capative Gloves (for Iphone/ Ipad/ Ipod users). Iphone/ Ipad/ Ipod are using capative screens which will not detect any movements if you are wearing a non-conducting material (cloth) on your hand. Therefore, Leto who has found a solution for apple users by imbuing fabric with nanoparticle to operate their devices or even ATM/ touch screen devices without removing your glove. Its retail price is $185. Personally, I would not buy as it will cost me too much just to operate any apple device using such a glove. I would just save the trouble and remove any glove on my hand if I am wearing one. Whatever it is, this product is targetting to other consumer market who serve their needs. There is always a market demand, as in for this case, no technology is a bad technology.

Key Takeaways:

There are many exciting emerging technologies that are currently in development stage, and the power of growing acceptance is definitely increasing and projected to be soon implemented in the near future as long as it serves the benefits to mankind. In another 10 years to come? I have also come across one interesting website which has written down the foreseeable technologies mankind would be expecting in the future timeline. Just to share, http://www.futuretimeline.net/index.htm

Rate: 8/10

Lesson 8

Energy and World Change (Past, Present and Future)

This week’s lesson compromises the issue of alternative renewable energy that we humans have to turn to due to the over reliance on fossil fuels. Some key discussions that we have mentioned is the class includes the drivers of global energy change – rapidly increase of energy prices, usage of energy and need for economic development, a need for sustainability where new forms of renewable energy came into the picture, new technologies and approaches to conserving energy as well as to reduce the pollution of reduction technologies.

Many nations count on coal, oil and natural gas to supply most of their energy needs but the reliance on fossil fuels still presents a big problem. Eventually the world will run out of fossil fuels, or t will become too expensive to retrieve those that remain. Furthermore, during class, we have also learned that fossil fuels cause pollutions to air, water, soil and emit greenhouse gases that contribute to global warming. Therefore, we seek for alternative ways on renewable energy resources such as wind, solar, biomass, geothermal, hydropower, ocean resources, biofuels and hydrogen derived from renewable resources. The existing renewable energy installations are making significant contributions to the US energy supply and research activities are demonstrating the far-reaching impact that a greater reliance on renewable energy sources could have on a country’s energy security.

 However, many will ponder will we do not tap on the direct sunlight or wind that are available to us? Corporations might think that investing into such technologies is of a high risk and it might not seem economically profitable in doing so? Must the government step in to lead of change? It’s definitely a green light to go for it if no one is tapping on such use.
 

Click here to watch: Aptera, Vehicle Of The Future 

 What is so special about Aptera?

·         50% of this average car’s energy is used pushing air out of the way at a rate of 55mph.

·         This three-wheeled car works by electricity.

·         The shape of the outer layer of the car is designed in a way that is much like a bird gliding through the wind.

·         The composite body structure provides an impact-resistant exterior that is lighter than steel but three times as strong. Front crash zones incorporate race car technology that absorbs and deflects energy to keep the cabin from harm. Integrated high-strength aluminum door beams transfer crash loads into the body and away from the cabin.

·         A complement of driver and passenger air bags is incorporated to ensure that each passenger is always secure.

This kind of electric car has been receiving lots of hype over the years as a car that is run using electricity and not fuel. It helps in reducing the consumption of fuel and thus growing in popularity and economy till today.
Personally, I feel that the electric car can act as an environment friendly guardian angel on the roads which can in fact draws a lot of by-passers’ attention to the use of electric car. The greatest advantage is that they are zero-emission vehicle where there is no emission from the tailpipe. However the electricity that is used to power these cars is produced from an energy plant by combustion of fossil fuels. Though fossil fuels are used here, it is argued that it is better for these fuels to be expelled at the plant than at the tailpipe.

Another advantage to buying an electric car in the US is that there are numerous financial incentives offered when buying an electric car. These incentives include cash rebates, tax credits, free re-charging and even free parking in some states.

Well, after all, the electric car is not something new to the car industry as they have been around for some time. In fact, presently they are the leaders in future cars. 

 "The days of fossil fuels are numbered. Renewed energy will drive the Green Revolution"

Dr. Shahi

Overall Rating: 7/10

 

Lesson 7

BioBusiness Revolution: Agribiology, Environment Life Sciences and Industrial Biotechnology (Past, Present and Future)

Thoughts and Summary:

Readings on Ending World Hunger. The promise of Biotechnology and the threats of Antiscience Zealotory

This reading caught by attention as it tags along with the Nobel Prize for Peace, 1970. The whole article is on a critique on the genetic modification of crops. In fact, author tries to emphasize that the green revolution is not over but it is another improvement made to the crop management productivity. I believe it is bringing more food supply to the world and I am totally supportive of this. As long as this genetic improvement of food crops can continue to meet the needs of 8.3 billion people (that is stated to be projected at the end of quarter century), I don’t see the point why we should be against it. Imagine days without food? That is then the end of the day for us human.

The use of biotechnology has developed invaluable new scientific methodologies and products. Look at the long term effects – reduction in herbicide (leads to lower production costs and a more environment friendly world), ability to plant agriculture in acidic soil (more arable land), greater tolerance of weather conditions and more. These have proven that the genetic modification of crops is a progressive force of nature of feeding human race. The author also stressed that a better education about genetic diversity and variation, so that people are more aware that the new technology shall be their salvation.

In Bandana’s presentation, she has also brought up the whole picture of Monsanto's profit margin vs socially responsible. Instead of teaching farmers or selling their new technology to them, the company simply sells to farmers without any interest in whether or not farmers benefit from them. Being profit driven and re-patent their core products is Monsanto’s main motives. They do not seen to be an ethical practice but I believe this is what every businesses' goals to survive, either you are the big brother calling the shots or not but the ones following in the norm. Suggestion brought up by the class is that Monsanto could change their business model such that they can collect their money of the seeds sold after every harvest that instead of farmers buying seeds.

Rate: 7 /10

Lesson 6

BioBusiness Revolution: Healthcare and Biomedical Sciences

Readings - Section 7A and B, Youtube clip on Emergence of and Immerging of Disease Management

Thoughts and Summary: The emerging trend in global health is a concern especially when baby boomers are consuming large medical health services. As they aged, chronic conditions such as heart disease, hypertension, diabetes and arthritis are inevitable. Due to the emerging trends in global health, medical centres are tailoring personal home-to-home medical services to the elderly so much so that the medical costs are reduced. Elderly can now lived up to 90 and above, and it is never surprising the number goes higher than 100. Elderly are living longer and healthier with the help of medical care and increased self-awareness on their health problems. It just struck me on the question, “Can I be able to live so long just like them?” I just pondered over this. I am just not sure by looking at the lifespan of my grandparents. I wish that in the past they can receive such medical treatment as compared to now.

With the new methods proposed for each individual, doctors can carefully monitor their patients though the telecommunication systems on internet and telephones. High risk patients will seek higher attention health care from their medical providers at home without leaving their houses. It makes the entire systems so efficient and serves the purpose of bringing convenience to the less mobile patients. All it needs to take is the patients administer their health status and doctors/ nurses can accesses to these information easily and give medical advice according to their health condition. I find that this daily or weekly proactive monitoring system allows patient to communicate with the doctors in an efficient way through virtual messages instead of patient going through the pain of waiting for the next medical consultation. I know how it feels because one of my family members has shared the experience he had in the hospital for every medical check-ups (as usual long waiting time, long queues, short consultation with doctor… )

This IT solution is definitely motivating as patients know that the medical providers are actually looking after them and they will be more self aware on their medical conditions. Besides, early symptoms can also be detected. It is proven that with DM kept in place on the grey population, health care costs are lowered, improved health outcomes and lower hospital admissions. DM is definitely a great promise to the health care delivery.

Thoughts and summary: This week’s discussion is rather close and real to us, intertwining with biology. We discover how technology has come into contact with our self interest and perfectionism. One of the presenters has shared with us great insights on Human Gerome project. The main advantages of the project are that the human is now able to revolutionize the ways to diagnose, treat and prevent diseases with the knowledge of effects of variation of DNA (more development of medicine and other aspects of health care) and it definitely provides clues to understand more in depth on the human biology. What about the ethics issues? As this astonishing treasure trove is introduced into society, are we going to misuse such knowledge? There have been on-going controversial debates over it. Some still believe that it could be the betterment of human in future?  

Overall: 7.5

"The BioBusiness Revolution will transform our lives (our health, food, clothes, energy source, others ..) and for our economies. BioBusiness may well be our best hope for achieving sustainable development."

Dr Shahi

Lesson 5

Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) and World Change

This week session is all about the vast advancements of different communication methods in today's context. Certain areas we looked in depth during class were the areas of interest, advantages and dangers of ICT and how do we capture the value of ICT revolutions in different industries. This is interesting to know how it can shape the future of our world.

In the past, we could only communicate through face-to-face or through the tradition medium of posting letter out to our recipient in which the communication will only reach by a few days later. Slowly, as we move on inventions from pagers to big cell phone and a shift to our handheld PDA or Iphone that have mobile internet connections and all-in-one functions in such a small device. SMS, MMS and internet becomes an everyday mode of communication. I was curious to know more about our telecommunication statistics therefore I went to research and below are my findings.

 Mobile Phone Penetration Rate

The figures of the chart above show the increasing percentage of mobile phone penetration in Singapore. In the year 2009, it reaches 137.4% penetration rate (IDA Singapore) and 6.58 million mobile users (BuddeComm) which hits one of the highest mobile penetration rates in the world at around 76%. This implies that every Singaporeans own at least 2 hand phones per person. Imagine the numbers of text messages we sent and phone calls we made daily are expected to rise at an exponential rate. And look at the way how our major mobile operators package their services at a competitive pricing to the consumers. They include free incoming calls and unlimited SMS options in our phone contract which have made our communication so easily reached to our recipient at practically no cost. This has also improved the method in which how communication is being exchanged.

Besides, there are growing concerns on the social networking sites at an individual level or business context. People can get to share information, ideas, activities, and interests; voice out personal opinions or daily updates through these sites and on the other hand businessmen are using this platform as a form of reaching their business to their target audience. In fact I have also shared during my presentation that the rapid growth in the social networking sites has become popular across different age groups, and if the largest social networking site, Facebook, is to use to be an illustration of a country it is said to be the third largest country in the world. These sites can be a gift or the opposite way of playing into issues of identity, privacy, exposure and many factors of dangers. In my opinion, for the issue on privacy it’s a matter of how a person is willing to share his or her private information and control who can access that information. With internet being able to store records of everything (online photo, status update, post or any blog entry) and information gets stored forever, everyone should be careful on publishing these information about themselves and not to be a victim of one.

This week is my presentation sharing with the class, the revolutionary change of web 2.0 to web 3.0 in the near future. Web 2.0 is all about the user-generated content and read-write web. People are consuming as well as contributing information through social networking sites or other sites like Youtube, Flickr. The line dividing a consumer and content publisher is increasingly getting blurred in this era.

So what’s new about Web 3.0? In short, this can also be named as the semantic web (adding meaning of data), personalization (iGoogle), intelligent search (search engine understands the general knowledge of language and knows what the users likes and dislikes) and behavioral advertising among other things. It is also believed to be the most comprehensive vision of Internet’s future available as of 2010 - and this is now we rule the internet of tomorrow.

Rate: 9/10

I feel that the individual presentations should be appointed not more than 5 persons in each session as the class will usually restless towards the end of the class. However being the last presenter, it gets hard to pull their full attention to my speech. In addition, due to time constraints, the discussion I had with the class was insufficient and I believe more interesting discussions on web 3.0 could be raised. I hope we could work this out by allocating strict time allocation for each individual on the following lessons.

Lesson 4

Drivers of World Change

Summary and Thoughts: Drivers of world change as well as Change management and Change Leadership is said to have take place in the process of change that is happening now. Drivers of change series give us an opportunity to stimulate thought and create conversations around the world. There is no doubt that our environment has transformed for the better, transformed from a local phenomenon to a global one. We are now confronted with more pressing social, technological, economic, environmental and political change forcing us to shift to a local mindset to a global scale. Everything here seems to be a cycle and view is now on a big macro picture. “Think globally - act locally” - quoted from the rally cry of UN and other global environmental initiatives, coined in 1972 by philosopher and UN advisor Rene Dubos. This becomes more than an empty slogan but now an urgent statement.

Look around us. The material used on our infrastructure, waste we have created, food that we are eating ... In this increasingly interconnected world, what defines our environment? Increasing environmental pollution? Global warming disaster? Progressive, developed, local and national governments are taking the initiative and setting examples of sustainability from a governance standpoint. In Singapore, our government is gearing towards a eco-friendly approach towards individual practice and industrial level which is a step closer to building a sustainable world and imbuing social responsibilities to individual to save the earth. But to some extent, the main motive behind business is the profit margin and potential growth. After all, is this how businesses strive to survive in the market? I believe only big organizations are able to afford spending big bucks in their Research and Development (R&D) in working towards the sustainability aim.

Change in management and Changing Leadership

Summary and Thoughts: The second half of the class addressed the issues to it. Business should be working towards a continual and highly responsive change in the environment, but not by sticking to the traditional business operation model of freeze-unfreeze-refreeze that we had previously discussed in class. Organization must be open to new ideas and map out a clear sense of directions they are heading to. “It is not necessary to change. Survival is not mandatory” - W. Edwards Deming

The two dimensions of performance: Efficiency and Effectiveness are often used together. This in turn has narrowly based our thinking of performance – we have come to believe that efficiency and effectiveness is all there is to performance.

The Efficiency and Effectiveness Cliche

According to the article, while efficiency and effectiveness are necessary dimensions to define performance, they are not sufficient for long-term success. Without flexibility, processes become rigid to the time and place in which they operate. What is today, an effcient and effective process, can become stale and unproductive overnight. The answer to this is the ability to be flexibility that allow a business to sustain a long term survival. The challenge is never preparing for what you do know, it is preparing for what you don’t.

I feel that our prof can spend more time on the introductory remarks, as I find some of the concepts taught are very useful and adaptable to the change now. Lesson is interesting especially when videos are shown. Overall, I would rate 8/10.